Tag Archives: uncertainties

overview

Model and data scales are of concern to nearly all simulations of the environment, including cropping systems. Temporal and spatial resolutions of data and model or between linked models should match. However, data is often scarce and simulations are often conducted for estimating parameters or assessing impacts were data is not available. With an increasing number of simulation studies ranging from field to global scale, scaling models has consequently become top science pick. For an overview on scaling methods with regard to models, please see Ewert et al., 2011. Two main aspects of spatial scales are illustrated in the figure below: spatial data aggregation / resolution and the representation of spatial mean and variability, e.g. via sampling.

scaling

Set up of simulation experiments for evaluating deviations from a) high resolution simulations of b) different grid cell sizes and c) reduced numbers of sampling points. Details are described in van Bussel et al. (2015) and Hoffmann et al. (2015). With friendly permission of Ewert et al. (2015).

The scaling research presented on this site has been mainly driven in the past by the AgMIP and MACSUR scaling activities. These activities mainly conduct crop model ensemble studies in order to

  • adress the error which is made by applying field-scale crop models at larger scales
  • identify crop model specific model-data-interactions
  • identify error sources and ways of generalizing these errors
  • estimate the error which is made by choosing a specific spatial sampling strategy
  • develop spatial sampling stragies
  • identify spatial patternsa and corresponding drivers

The following wikis on input data aggregation and spatial sampling  give an overview on the current scaling activities.

If you are a contributing scientist, please register or login to get more details, read or write about the on-going work.

References:
Frank Ewert, Martin K. van Ittersum, Thomas Heckelei, Olivier Therond, Irina Bezlepkina, Erling Andersen, 2011. Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems. Agriculture, Ecosystems & Environment 142, 6 – 17.

Frank Ewert, Lenny G.J. van Bussel, Gang Zhao, Holger Hoffmann, Thomas Gaiser, Xenia Specka, Claas Nendel, Kurt-Christian Kersebaum, Carmen Sosa, Elisabet Lewan,  Jagadeesh Yeluripati,  Matthias Kuhnert, Fulu Tao, Reimund P. Rötter, Julie Constantin, Helene Raynal, Daniel Wallach, Edmar Teixeira, Balasz Grosz, Michaela Bach, Luca Doro,  Pier P. Roggero, Zhigan Zhao, Enli Wang, Ralf Kiese, Edwin Haas, Henrik Eckersten,  Giacomo Trombi, Marco Bindi, Christian Klein, Christian Biernath, Florian Heinlein, Eckart Priesack, Davide Cammarano, Senthold Asseng, Joshua Elliott, Michael Glotter, Bruno Basso, Guillermo A. Baigorria, Consuelo C. Romero, Marco Moriondo, 2015. Uncertainties in Scaling up Crop Models for Large Area Climate-change Impact Assessments. In C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, editors. Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP).

publications

peer review journal

Coucheney E, Eckersten H, Hoffmann H, Jansson PE, Gaiser T, Ewert F, Lewan E. 2018. Key functional soil types explain data aggregation effects on simulated yield, soil carbon, drainage and nitrogen leaching at a regional scale. Geoderma 318, 167-181.

Klosterhalfen A, Herbst M, Weihermüller L, Graf A, Schmidt M, Stadler A, Schneider K Subke J-A Huisman JA Vereecken H. 2017. Multi-site calibration and validation of a net ecosystem carbon exchange model for croplands. Ecological Modelling 363, 137–156.

Grosz B, Dechow R, Gebbert S, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Sosa C, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Kiese R, Haas E, Klatt S, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Vanuytrecht E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F. 2017. The implication of input data aggregation on up-scaling soil organic carbon changes. Environ Modell Softw 96, 361-377.

Hoffmann H, Baranowski P, Krzyszczak J, Zubik M, Slawinski C, Gaiser T, Ewert F. 2017. Temporal properties of spatially aggregated meteorological time series. Agr Forest Meteorol 234-235, 247-257.

Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Smith P, Hoffmann H, Van Oijen M, Constantin J, Dechow R, Eckersten,  H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kersebaum K-C, Kiese R, Klatt S, Lewan E, Nendel C,  Raynal H, Sosa C, Specka X, Teixeira E, Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao G, Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2017. Impact analysis of climate data aggregation at different spatial scales on simulated Net Primary Productivity for croplands. Eur J Agronom 88, 41-52.

Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Yeluripati J, Specka X, Nendel C, Coucheney E, Kuhnert M, Tao F, Constantin J, Raynal H, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Kiese R, Eckersten H, Haas E, Cammarano D, Kassie B, Moriondo M, Trombi G, Bindi M, Lewan E, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Asseng S, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2016.  Evaluation of the accuracy of eight spatial sampling schemes in selecting sites for simulating regional crop yields. Environ Modell Softw 80, 100-112.

Van Bussel LGJ, Ewert F, Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Enders A, Wallach D, Constantin J, Raynal H, Klein C, Biernath C, Heinlein F, Priesack E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Elliott J, Glotter M, Nendel C, Kersebaum K-C, Specka X, Basso B, Baigorria G, Romero C,  Chryssanthacopoulos J, 2016. Spatial sampling of weather data for regional crop yield simulations. Agr For Met 220, 101-115.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Asseng S, Bindi M, Biernath C, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Doro L, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Heinlein F, Kassie BT, Kersebaum K-C, Klein C, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Priesack E, Raynal H, Roggero PP, Rötter RP, Siebert S, Specka X, Tao F, Teixeira E, Trombi G, Wallach D, Weihermüller L, Yeluripati J, Ewert F,  2016. Impact of spatial soil and climate input data aggregation on regional yield simulations. PLoS ONE 11(4): e0151782. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151782

Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F,  Constantin J, Raynal H, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Kiese R, Eckersten H, Haas E, Vanuytrecht E, Wang E, Kuhnert M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Bindi M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Effect of weather data aggregation on regional crop simulation for  different crops, production conditions, and response variables. Clim Res 65, 141-157.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin C, Raynal H, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Zhao Z, Wang E, Nendel C, Kersebaum K-C, Haas E, Kiese R, Klatt S, Eckersten H, Vanuytrecht E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Variability  of  effects  of  spatial climate  data  aggregation on  regional  yield simulation by crop models. Clim Res 65, 53-69.

Ewert F, Van Ittersum MK, Heckelei T, Therond O, Bezlepkina I, Andersen E, 2011. Scale changes and model linking methods for integrated assessment of agri-environmental systems. Agr Ecosyst Environ 142, 6 – 17.

book chapter

Ewert F, Van Bussel LGJ, Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Gaiser T, Specka X, Nendel C, Kersebaum K-C, Sosa C, Lewan E,  Yeluripati J,  Kuhnert M, Tao F, Rötter RP, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Teixeira E, Grosz, Bach M, Doro L,  Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Kiese R, Haas E, Eckersten H, Trombi G, Bindi M, Klein C, Biernath C, Heinlein F, Priesack E, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Elliott J, Glotter M, Basso B,  Baigorria GA, Romero CC, Moriondo M, 2015. Uncertainties in Scaling up Crop Models for Large Area Climate-change Impact Assessments. In C. Rosenzweig and D. Hillel, editors. Handbook of Climate Change and Agroecosystems: The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). World Scientific Publishing Company, pp. 262-277.

 

conference contributions

Coucheney E, Villa Solis A, Eckersten H, Hoffmann H, Jansson PE, Gaiser T, Ewert F, Lewan E, 2017. Spatial aggregation for crop modelling at regional scales: the effects of soil variability. EGU2017-14113

Hoffmann H, Kersebaum K-C, Zhao G, Asseng S, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Doro L, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kassie B, Kiese R, Klatt S, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Raynal H, Roggero PP, Rötter R, Siebert S, Sosa C, Specka X, Tao F, Teixeira E, Trombi G, Yeluripati J, Vanuytrecht E, Wallach D, Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2016. Data aggregation effects in regional yield simulations. ASA. Phoenix, USA. (accepted)

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Asseng S, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Doro L, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kassie B, Kersebaum K-C, Kiese R, Klatt S, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Raynal H, Roggero PP, Rötter R, Siebert S, Sosa C, Specka X, Tao F, Teixeira E, Trombi G, Yeluripati J, Vanuytrecht E, Wallach D, Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2016. Soil data aggregation effects in regional yield simulations. Global AgMIP Workshop. Montpellier, France.

Kuhnert M,  and the MACSUR scaling group Team, 2016. Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling. EGU. Vienna, Austria. Geophysical Research Abstracts 18,  EGU2016-15736.

Hoffmann H, Baranowski P, Krzyszczak J, Zubik M. 2016. Effect of spatial averaging on multifractal properties of meteorological time series. EGU, Vienna, Austria. Geophys Res Abstracts 18,  EGU2016-16658.

Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Smith P, Hoffmann H, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kersebaum K-C, Kiese R, Klatt S, Lewan E, Nendel C, Raynal H, Sosa C, Specka X, Teixeira E,  Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao G , Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2016 Impacts of soil and weather data aggregation in spatial modelling of net primary production of croplands. iCROPM. Berlin, Germany.

Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Smith P, Hoffmann H, van Oijen, M, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kersebaum K-C, Kiese R, Klatt S, Lewan E, Nendel C, Raynal H, Sosa C, Specka X, Teixeira E,  Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao G , Zhao Z, Ogle, S, Ewert F, 2016 Effects of climate data aggregation on regional net primary production (NPP) modelling, 8th International Congress on Environmental Modelling and Software, Toulouse, France

Constantin J, Bergez J-E, Raynal H, Hoffmann H, Ewert F, 2016. Impact of maize management variability modeled as decision rules on yield and Drainage at the regional scale. iCROPM. Berlin, Germany.

Coucheney E, Eckersten H, Jansson PE, Ewert F, Gaiser T, Hoffmann H, Lewan E, 2016. The role of spatial pattern of soil types for data aggregation effects in crop modelling. iCROPM. Berlin, Germany.

Grosz B, Dechow R, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Coucheney E, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Kiese R, Haas E, Klatt S, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2016. Implications of input data aggregation on upscaling of soil organic carbon changes. iCROPM. Berlin, Germany.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Asseng S, Bindi M, Cammarano D, Constantin J, Coucheney E, Dechow R, Doro L, Eckersten H, Gaiser T, Grosz B, Haas E, Kassie B, Kersebaum K-C, Kiese R, Klatt S, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Moriondo M, Nendel C, Raynal H, Roggero PP, Rötter R, Siebert S, Sosa C, Specka X, Tao F, Teixeira E, Trombi G, Yeluripati J, Vanuytrecht E, Wallach D, Wang E, Weihermüller L, Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2016. Analysing data aggregation effects on large-scale yield simulations. iCROPM2016. Berlin, Germany.

Baranowski P, Krzyszczak J, Hoffmann H, Sławiński C, 2016. Multifractal properties of spatially aggregated meteorological data – a regional study. iCROPM2016. Berlin, Germany.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Analyse von Aggregierungsmethoden für großskalige Ertragssimulationen. 58. Jahrestagung der Gesellschaft für Pflanzenbauwiss., Braunschweig, Germany. Mitt. Ges. Pflanzenbauwiss. 27: 69-70.

Kuhnert M,  Yeluripati J, Smith P, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Coucheney E, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Grosz B, Dechow R, Kiese R, Haas E, Klatt S, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Vanuytrecht E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Impact of climate aggregation over different scales on regional NPP modelling. MACSUR Science Conference. Reading, UK.

Haas E, Kiese R, Klatt S, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Sosa C, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Grosz B, Dechow R, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Vanuytrecht E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Responses of N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate Input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. MACSUR Science Conference. Reading, UK.

Grosz B, Dechow R, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Coucheney E, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Kiese R, Haas E, Klatt S, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Vanuytrecht E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. The implication of input data aggregation on upscaling of soil organic carbon changes. MACSUR Science Conference 2015. Reading, UK.

Coucheney E, Eckersten H, Jansson PE, Ewert F, Gaiser T, Hoffmann H, Lewan E, 2015. Sensitivity of crop water and N stress to soil input data in regional crop yield simulations and the implications for data aggregation effects: a case study with the COUP-model. MACSUR Science Conference 2015. Reading, UK.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Coucheney E, Sosa C, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Specka X, Kersebaum K-C, Nendel C, Grosz B, Dechow R, Kuhnert M, Yeluripati J, Kiese R, Haas E, Klatt S, Teixeira E, Bindi M, Trombi G, Moriondo M, Doro L, Roggero PP, Zhao Z, Wang E, Vanuytrecht E, Tao F, Rötter R, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Weihermüller L, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2015. Effects of soil and climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields. MACSUR Science Conference. Reading, UK.

Grosz B, Dechow R, Ewert F, Gaiser T, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, 2015. The implication of input data aggregation on upscaling of soil organic carbon changes – a case study with CENTURY model. EGU. Vienna, Austria. EGU General Assembly Conference Abstracts 17, 10275.

Hoffmann H, Gang Zhao, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Casellas E, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Kiese R, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Klatt S, Edwin Haas, Wang E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T,  Ewert F, 2014. Sensitivity of crop models to spatial aggregation of soil and climate data. Annual conference of the German/Austrian Agronomical Society & Max-Eyth-Society. Vienna, Austria.

Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Luca Doro, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Ralf Kiese, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Haas E, Wang E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Ewert F, 2014. Weather data aggregation’s effect on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison. 13th ESA Congress. Debrecen, Hungary.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Kiese R, Raynal H, Eckersten H,  Haas E, Wang E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Roggero PP, Wallach D, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Cammarano D, Asseng S, Ewert F, 2014. Influence of climate input data aggregation on simulated yield. 13th ESA Congress. Debrecen, Hungary.

Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Zhao Z, Nendel C, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Haas E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Roggero PP, Rötter R, Wallach D, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Kiese R, Wang E, Ewert F, 2014. Weather data aggregation’s effects on simulation of cropping systems: a model, production system and crop comparison. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Conference. Sassari, Italy.

Klatt S, Haas E, Kiese R, 2014. Responses of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Conference. Sassari, Italy.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F,  Constantin J, Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Nendel C, Kiese R, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Haas E,  Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Roggero PP, Rötter R, Wallach D, Krauss G, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Wang E, Zhao Z, Ewert F, 2014. Effects  of  climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Conference. Sassari, Italy.

Zhao G, Hoffmann H, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Teixeira E, Doro L, Nendel C, Kiese R, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Haas E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C,  Reimund R, Wallach D, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2014. Responses of crop’s water use efficiency to weather data aggregation: a crop model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop. Oslo, Norway.

Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Specka X, Sosa C, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J , Teixeira E, Grosz B, Doro L, Nendel C, Kiese R, Raynal H, Eckersten H, Haas E, Kuhnert M, Lewan E, Bach M, Kersebaum K-C, Rötter R, Wallach D, Gaiser T, Ewert F, 2014. Effects of climate input data aggregation on modelling regional crop yields. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop. Oslo, Norway.

Klatt S, Haas E, Hoffmann H, Zhao G, Van Bussel LGJ, Enders A, Gaiser T, Ewert F, Teixeira E, Kiese R, Doro L, Specka X, Nendel C, Kersebaum K-C, Sosa C, Lewan E, Eckersten H, Gebbert S, Dechow R, Grosz B, Bach M, Yeluripati J, Tao F, Constantin J, Raynal H, Wallach D, Kuhnert M, 2014.  Responses of soil N2O emissions and nitrate leaching on climate input data aggregation: a biogeochemistry model ensemble study. FACCE MACSUR CropM International Symposium and Workshop. Oslo, Norway.

Weihermüller L, Herbst M, Klosterhalfen A, Vereecken H, 2014.  AgroC – Development and first evaluation of a model for carbon fluxes in agroecosystems. FACCE MACSUR Mid-Term Conference. Sassari, Italy
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data

Hoffmann H, Enders A, Siebert S, Gaiser T, Ewert F. 2016. Climate and soil input data aggregation effects in crop models. doi: 10.7910/DVN/C0J5BB, Harvard Dataverse, V3.